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Will ROK-US joint military exercise upset Pyongyang?

韓美再打聯合軍演“政治牌”,會刺激朝鮮神經嗎?

來源:China Military Online責任編輯:Li Jiayao
2021-03-09 16:40

劉淙

By Liu Cong

3月8日至18日,韓美將實施上半年聯合指揮所演習(CCPT)。韓美聯合軍演一向是一張牽動朝鮮半島神經的“政治牌”,通常被視作是給朝鮮半島局勢增添變數的重要因素。此次會否令本就陷入僵局的緊張局勢再度升溫?

The ROK and US will carry out the Combined Command Post Training (CCPT) from March 8 to 18. As joint military exercise between the two countries is considered an important “political card” that always adds uncertainties to the Korean peninsular situation, will the CCPT escalate the deadlocked situation on the peninsula again?

朝鮮最高領導人金正恩在2021年1月的朝鮮勞動黨第八次代表大會上曾指出,“韓國繼續回避我方關于停止運進尖端軍事裝備和中止同美國的聯合軍演的屢次警告,依然違背有關保障朝鮮半島和平與軍事穩定的北南協議”。只有韓國當局嚴管并徹底根除“不正常的”行為,才能打開朝韓關系改善的新道路。

DPRK’s top leader Kim Jong-Un said at the 8th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea that, “the ROK continues to neglect our warnings for it to stop importing sophisticated military equipment and the joint military exercises with the US. It continues to violate the inter-Korean military agreement on ensuring peace and military stability on the Korean peninsula”. He vowed that only when Seoul completely stops its abnormal behaviors will there be a chance of improving the relations with Pyongyang.

然而,美國拜登政府上臺后,再次強調了韓美聯合軍演的重要性。

Yet Biden has reemphasized the importance of the US-ROK joint military exercise after he took office.

美國國防部2月曾表示,國防部長奧斯汀最重視的是軍事應對態勢。美國國防部強調,韓美聯合軍演是確認兩國聯合準備態勢的核心手段。美方同時重申,演習的基本目的并不在于“挑釁”,而在于防御。

The US Department of Defense announced in February that what the new defense secretary Austin is concerned most is military responsiveness, while the military exercise with ROK is a crucial way to confirm their joint preparedness. The US side also reaffirmed that the fundamental purpose of the exercise is not provocation, but defense.

中國國際問題研究院研究員楊希雨在接受采訪時分析稱,從美國的角度,舉行聯合軍演一方面是要維持美韓軍事同盟,以及軍隊協同作戰能力;另一方面,聯合軍演本身就能“刺激朝鮮神經”,對朝鮮進行施加壓力,這是一張“政治牌”。

Yang Xiyu, researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, explained in an interview why the US plans to hold the joint military exercise. On the one hand, it wants to maintain the military alliance with ROK and improve the interoperability of their troops; on the other hand, the exercise is a political card that will put pressure on DPRK.

與此同時,韓國國內對此次軍演也存在著諸多質疑聲音。

However, voices against the exercise are heard within ROK.

一方面,對于韓國政府來說,需要通過演習,早日獲得戰時作戰指揮權的移交。但引人關注的是,2021年的軍演不僅規模有所縮小,備受關注的有關韓軍收回戰時作戰指揮權的“完全作戰能力”評估工作,也不會進行。此項評估工作旨在驗證將行使戰時作戰指揮權的未來聯合司令部是否具備指揮能力,是計劃中的美韓戰時作戰指揮權移交工作中的核心內容。

Seoul needs the exercise to take over the wartime operational control (OPCON) from the US at an early date, but it’s worth noting that not only is this year’s exercise in a scaled-back manner, but the much-expected Full Operational Capability (FOC) test necessary for the OPCON transfer will be limited too. The test, aimed to validate whether the Combined Forces Command that will exercise the wartime OPCON is capable of doing the job, is at the heart of the planned OPCON transfer between the two countries.

美國拜登政府在這一問題上維持什么樣的立場,這將還是個未知數。拜登團隊或會比特朗普政府更密切審視細節問題,探討相關決定是否符合韓美協議。加之新冠疫情的影響,文在寅想在其任期內收回戰時指揮權將難上加難。

The Biden administration’s stance on this issue is unknown.Thought it may give a closer scrutiny of the details than the previous administration to see if relevant decisions conform to the bilateral agreement. This, coupled with the pandemic, has made it less likely for Moon Jae-in to take back the OPCON during his term.

另一方面,眾多韓國民間團體集會要求停止此次軍演,稱擔憂軍演會令朝鮮半島局勢再次陷入僵局。

However, many civic groups in ROK have assembled in protest against the joint exercise, citing worries that it may throw the peninsular situation into a deadlock again.

6?15共同宣言實踐韓方委員會全北本部3月4日召開記者會主張,為降低軍事緊張局勢,應該中斷韓美聯合軍事演習,努力為對話奠定基礎。韓國慶尚南道101個組織團體也同樣發出聲明要求中斷演習,敦促維護半島和平。

The northern headquarters of the South Korean Committee for the Implementation for the June 15 South-North Joint Declaration held a press conference on March 4, calling for the suspension of ROK-US joint military exercises in order to mitigate the military tension and lay the foundation for south-north dialogue. Another 101 organizations at Gyeongsangnam-do also released a statement demanding the exercise’s suspension in defense of peace on the peninsula.

外交學院國際關系研究所教授李海東認為,此次軍演會惡化和加劇朝鮮半島緊張局勢,進行軍演本身,傳遞給朝鮮的信號就很消極。同時,這不僅會妨礙朝美之間的溝通,也會阻礙朝韓之間的合作。

The military exercise will worsen the Korean peninsular tension as it sends a passive signal to DPRK. It will not only obstruct communication between Pyongyang and Washington, but will disrupt cooperation between Pyongyang and Seoul too, said Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University.

不過,楊希雨指出,軍演雖然一定會造成半島局勢的再度升溫,但這種升溫的限度會有一個非常明顯的界限,不會爆發直接的軍事沖突?!耙驗殡p方誰都不想打破目前這種不戰不和的僵持局面,雙方的博弈和互動,基本上都處在一個可控的范圍之內?!?

But Yang Xiyu also pointed out that even though the military exercise will heat up the situation on the peninsula again, the impact will be very limited, and a military conflict is out of the question because “neither party is willing to break the current stalemate, and their interaction and wrestling are basically kept controllable.”

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